Back in 2018, a mere eight words to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not exactly soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.
In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.
The Evolution in Position and Settled Issues
In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. An early move after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that forbade re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle again.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels in 2024 provides gains quantified in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme by which youths can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.
Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the red lines are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again by warning a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.
- Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
- Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from Europe.
A Bizarre Strategy and Strategic Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to Muslim migration. It contains only one reference to Britain, placed beside a proposal that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the rise of nationalist movements.
However, instead of deciding that this renders the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that deeper EU integration would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.
Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018
This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.
Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her stance regarding a customs pact because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Danger & A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise of him to remember the effect just a few words had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.
