Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
